Touchdown Tendency Analysis Tool
What it is: As the season progresses, this type of data will help Owner’s Edge subscribers differentiate between a contender and pretender at individual positions. It will provide a baseline for just how much a team is using a certain position in the red zone.
What it means for Week 8:
- sure, we’re talking about a kicker, but the surprising downfall in Tennessee has wrecked the value of Rob Bironas, who led off many a final round on draft day by becoming the first place kicker off the board. in return, owners have gotten some weak numbers. the Titans are struggling to move the ball and that includes getting into the red zone. that has left Bironas with just seven field goals and seven extra points this year. with a switch to Vince Young, there’s little cause to believe in better red zone numbers or better digits from Bironas.
- the top five tight ends in fantasy football are in the top five for a good reason. some ordering of Owen Daniels, Dallas Clark, Vernon Davis, Antonio Gates, and Heath Miller, make up that top five in most fantasy leagues. the reason is quite simple – all five players are on teams that focus on the tight end more than 25 percent of the time when throwing inside the 20. Miller is off this week, but the other four are all solid starts this Sunday; and nearly every Sunday, for that matter.
- Here’s more proof that the Jets are going slow with rookie quarterback mark Sanchez. no team throws the ball less than New York when they are within 20 yards of the end zone. in fact, their drop-back rate of less than 29 percent is more than six percentage points less than the next team on the list, Oakland. that means that as long as the Jets move the ball against Miami, both Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene should get plenty of scoring chances on Sunday.
Track Records
What it is: those who forget history are doomed to miss out on big weekends. This device gives you the inside edge on the players who standout against particular teams.
What it means for Week 8:
- Tennessee’s Chris Johnson has performed solidly against Jacksonville, but he has yet to find the end zone on a rush in any of this three career games against the Jags. His typical game has looked like this – 16 carries for 80 rushing yards and three catches for 23 receiving yards, but again, zero rushing scores. he does have one receiving touchdown, which occurred in Week 1 of last season.
- Brian Westbrook owners got the double whammy with his concussion. not only is he questionable for this week’s game (I cannot fathom him being out there), but he misses an opponent that he has loved to attack in his career. in 11 career meetings with the New York Giants, Westbrook has 12 total touchdowns. Fill-in LeSean McCoy gets the call and although the Giants are the no.1 overall defense, they rank just 15th in the league against the run.
- Reggie Bush’s value fluctuates with the phases of the moon, and this week’s matchup with Atlanta doesn’t help matters. the multi-purpose tailback has gone up against the Falcons four times and averaged more than five yards per carry with about four receptions per game and a total of two scores. those numbers are OK. Benching Bush might be the decision when you consider that Atlanta has controlled other all-purpose backs like Ronnie Brown, Matt Forte, and the Marion Barber-Felix Jones combo, this season.
Stud, Dud, or Average
What it is: How do your players rate? Identify which fantasy players are the biggest studs, duds and simply mediocre with this tool. Finding the most consistent players is the name of the game here.
What it means for Week 8:
- How impressive was the one half showing by Alex Smith in Week 7? well, according to the “Stud, Dud, or Average”-scoring system, Smith’s near-28 point effort would be the highest in football if he averaged it every time out. so, let’s just say that it’s unlikely that the former no.1 pick pulls off the trick again. Plus, should we add that he’ll be on the road against Indianapolis? Here’s another tidbit – before last week’s QB rating of 118, his average mark was under 60 in his previous 13 efforts.
- Mike Sims-Walker comes off a bye week, but still holds the title of “Most Surprising Fantasy Wide Receiver.” His “Stud” percentage (games scoring when he notches more than 11 fantasy points) is the highest in the league (75 percent) and he is one of just four receivers among the top 30 who hasn’t had a “Dud” game (less than five fantasy points). Granted, he’s played in just four games, but there is no reason to expect a slow down this week in Nashville.
- the Matt Forte believers are slowly peeling away following another lackluster showing in Cincinnati. things are so bad that Forte (who is supposedly healthy) has had as many “Dud” games (showings with less than six fantasy points) as “Stud” and “Average” games combined. Still, did you hold onto Forte for seven bad weeks, just to dump or trade him on the eve of a contest with the hapless Browns?
Player Workload
What it is: How frequently is a player being used in the rushing and receiving game? We identify the ‘horses’ that get the highest percentage of their team’s touches each week.
What it means for Week 8:
- the Detroit and St. Louis game (yes, they have to play it) will be decided by which team wins the battle on the ground. the Lions have issues at quarterback and, even if he does play, Calvin Johnson will be less than 100 percent. that means that Kevin Smith should easily reach his per-game average of 18 carries. on the other side, Steven Jackson has the biggest workload in the game (more than 20 carries, plus three catches per week) and he’s just about the only positive in a season that has been dreadful. the two backs rank 1-2 in the NFL for total percentage of team’s touches per game, with both at 7.7 percent.
- Ted Ginn has been public enemy no.1 in Miami. he had 11 catches in Week 2 and has had five catches since then. Earlier this week, he didn’t even take part in first or second-team drills. meanwhile, both Greg Camarillo and Brian Hartline are seeing more and more of the pigskin. Camarillo is picking up where he left off before a tough leg injury a season ago. He’s a PPR-boost and has averaged four catches over the past three weeks. Just don’t count on getting many touchdowns.
- DeSean Jackson had another fantastic outing in Week 7 versus Washington. unfortunately, he’s still not a consistent threat. the Eagles need to find him more, as right now they are hitting him for just 3.5 catches per game. furthermore, he’s getting the ball in the rushing attack just 1.2 times per game. in terms of total offensive touches, the Eagles and fantasy owners need those numbers to double.
Offensive Case Study
What it is: find out how each player on each team is producing yards and touchdowns from week-to-week.
What it means for Week 8:
- Dustin Keller has been a big letdown for owners. the tight end gets a catch or two every week, but he’s mostly been an afterthought for a Jets offense that would seem to favor the position when their rookie quarterback drops back. instead, Keller hasn’t had a scoring grab since Week 2 and hasn’t been over 31 yards since Week 1. Here’s more bad news – his one catchless game came in Week 5 versus Miami. That’s the same Dolphins team that he faces this Sunday.
- the arrival of Ryan Fitzpatrick under center has meant great things for Lee Evans. Ever since the backup jumped into the fold in place of a concussed, Trent Edwards, Evans has seen his targets and receptions leap forth. He’s collected a pair of scores over the past two games while notching nine receptions for 143 total yards. in the five games previous, he had just 12 catches. Houston is in the latter half of the NFL against the pass. another 60-70 yards from Evans is a solid wager.
- Because he has just two scores through six games, some owners have been disappointed in T.J. Houshmandzadeh. if you are in a PPR-league and have such an owner hanging around, go out and make a trade offer … now. He’s averaged more than five catches per game and has never had less than four. that success has come without regular time from his quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck. What most sells me on Houshmandzadeh is that Seattle’s next six games are against defenses that are all 20th or worst in the NFL against the pass. Buy now.
Net Rankings
What it is: the Owner’s Edge net yards-per-game rankings provide a true measurement of a team’s relative success by factoring in quality of opposition. each team’s performance is weighed against the average performance of its opponents in all other games (excluding the game or games played against the team being measured).
What it means for Week 8:
- Although they will have a new quarterback handling duties on Sunday, Tennessee’s offense has not been too terrible under Kerry Collins. in fact, with 311 yards per outing, they are still better than 10 other teams. Jacksonville’s defense allows more than 360 an outing (10th worst in the league), but they have played some strong offensive outfits like Indianapolis, Arizona, and Houston. I have every expectation that Vince Young will not change the Titans’ fortunes … in fact, I think they’ll do worse.
- My “Shaky Limb Prediction of the Week,” has me profiling Detroit and St. Louis. Both teams give up more than 30 points per game. Both teams rarely face offenses this bad. all of it sets up for a sewage-packed showdown, but I’ll go against the grain and predict that both teams – yes, both teams – get into the high 20s. Dare I say, Lions and Rams in a shootout?
- the top two rushing teams in football lock horns in the Meadowlands. the Jets are at the top of the heap with 185 yards per 60 minutes. the Dolphins are a good deal behind them, but still rank no.2, with just over 170 yards per game. in their first meeting (less than a month ago), New York went for 138 and Miami netted 151. even without Leon Washington, I don’t see much changing for either side in the second meeting. that means that Thomas Jones, Ronnie Brown, and Ricky Williams should all be starts. Shonn Greene’s “play” status is tied into your running back depth.
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