NEW YORK – (Business Wire) Fitch Ratings assigns an ‘AA-’ long-term rating to the Illinois State Toll Highway Authority’s (the authority) $280 million toll highway fixed-rate senior priority revenue bonds, 2009 series B and 2009 series C (2009 series), scheduled for negotiated sale on or about Nov. 23, 2009. the 2009 series bonds may be sold either as taxable Build America Bonds with a 35% direct-pay issuer subsidy or as tax-exempt bonds.
the 2009 series bonds are secured by a senior lien on the net revenues of the toll-road system. Pursuant to the supplement of the trust indenture for the series 2009 bonds, the subsidy payments received by the authority in relation to the Build America Bonds are not deemed pledged revenues; however, the authority covenants to deposit these receipts to the trustee for the interest payment on the bonds. Proceeds of the 2009 series bonds will be used to fund portions of the authority’s $6.1 billion Congestion Relief capital program. Fitch also affirms the ‘AA-’ rating on the authority’s $3.8 billion of outstanding parity debt. the Rating Outlook is Negative.
the ‘AA-’ rating reflects strong regional economic fundamentals with a growing population base resulting in robust traffic demand, the essential nature of the transportation links serving a heavily traveled metropolitan area, including direct connections to an established network of Interstate highways and the historically sound financial profile. Generally, toll levels are relatively low allowing for economic flexibility to raise rates, however, the current toll policy places a toll revenue dependency in excess of 40% on the more economically sensitive commercial traffic. the rating also incorporates rising debt levels with a relatively large variable-rate component and interest rate hedge swap portfolio. Authority management has indicated a preliminary plan to reduce its variable-rate exposure by at least 50% of its current balances over the course of the next year. such actions may not necessarily realize immediate debt service savings but could lead to more stable debt interest costs and further minimize underlying risks to financial counterparties.
the Negative Outlook reflects the potential for lower debt service coverage levels in future years should toll transactions and revenues not meet relatively steep recovery rates reaching 20% above current levels over the next three years following the substantial completion of capacity enhancement projects of the authority’s $6.1 billion Congestion Relief Plan (CRP). Traffic recovery of this magnitude is critical to maintaining financial margins as annual debt service requirements are expected to quickly rise from $167 million in 2009 to over $264 million in 2013, reflecting the rising debt levels assumed by the authority.
in recent years, traffic growth has been stagnant given the weakening economic conditions within the Chicago MSA, the volatility in fuel prices, and traffic interruptions caused by the CRP. in addition, Fitch believes that financial margins could also be adversely affected should either the debt interest costs or toll highway operating expenses exceed current forecasts. Almost 40% of the authority’s nearly $3.8 billion of outstanding debt remains in variable-rate mode, although synthetic fixed-rate payments are provided through various swap agreements. Forecasts indicate operating costs increasing by a modest 3% per year, a growth rate measurably below the nearly 6% average annual increase since 2004. Some uncertainly also remains with regards to continued commitment, size, and scope, to a previously considered proposal for an $1.8 billion Phase II CRP, much of which was initially indicated to be debt financed. at this time, the authority has not taken any meaningful steps to advance the Phase II CRP.
the authority operates a network of four toll highways that serve a 12-county area in northeastern Illinois, including the Chicago metropolitan area. Since the opening of its first highway in 1959, the authority has enjoyed a consistent history of annual gains in traffic and revenue, reflecting the steady expansion of the regional economy. However, declines in traffic following the 2005 toll increases, the start of the CRP on much of the system as well as the 2006 elimination of a mainline toll plaza on the Northwest (Jane Addams Memorial) Tollway section resulted in a 5.5% overall decline in transactions between 2004 and 2008. during the first 10 months of 2009, transactions are down a nominal 1.2% and recent monthly activity reports indicate that declines may have stemmed.
Toll revenues increased significantly following the last toll increase and have remained essentially flat since 2005 due to the combined effects of reduced traffic volume and a switch in companies that process toll evasions that resulted in an interruption in the billing process. for 2007 and 2008, toll revenues have grown 1% and 1.9%, respectively. during the first 10 months of 2009, toll revenues have increased by just 0.9%. Fitch believes these results are satisfactory for a mature toll-road system given the scope of the capital projects, the unprecedented volatility in fuel prices and weakening economic trends in the region.
the authority’s current forecast assumes toll activity will increase from approximately 762 million transactions in 2009 to nearly 936 million transactions in 2012, an aggregate increase of 22%. Similarly, toll revenues are expected to rise to nearly $765 million by 2012, or a similar 22% above estimates for fiscal 2009. while the completion of capital enhancement projects in high traffic corridors will serve as catalysts for growth, Fitch believes that traffic growth may under-perform these projections in the near term if economic conditions remain weak.
the current financial profile of the authority remains strong with historical debt service coverage ratios in excess of 2.0 times(x) coupled with a strong liquidity position with over $400 million in fund balances. the authority projects debt service coverage, assuming the new debt issuance of the 2009 series B and C bonds to be at or near the 2.0x. this forecast reflects the authority’s assumed growth in toll transactions, containment of operating expense growth at an average 3% per annum, and no adverse developments on the debt interest costs of the approximately $1.6 billion outstanding variable-rate bonds. while management has indicated a goal to maintain debt service coverage at or above 2.0x, it is Fitch’s view that current economic conditions could suppress traffic and toll revenues, resulting in financial results moderately below those currently projected. Should this scenario develop, further toll increases may be needed to maintain current credit quality. at this time, the authority has indicated no plans to raise passenger toll rates and that commercial tolls would not rise before 2015.
To date, the capital program is progressing with many capacity enhancing projects nearing completion with no material variances from the budget. while the authority does not anticipate the need for future toll adjustments to finance the existing Congestion Relief Phase I capital program, a second phase announced in late 2008 may lead up to $1.8 billion of additional debt and require future rate increases. Key elements to this new plan include introduction of green-managed lanes within the existing system with variable pricing structures. this added phase of the capital plan has not moved forward over the past year given the executive changes in state government in early 2009. Still, the authority’s board has already approved a 60% toll increase phased in over three years starting in 2015 for commercial vehicles followed by an annual increase tied to the consumer price index. Additional managed lane toll rates have yet to be determined. Fitch will continue to monitor the commitment as well as size and scope to the new component to the capital program coupled with the adequacy of new proposed revenues.
Fitch believes that the authority’s sizable variable-rate portfolio represents some potential risks to its overall financing costs. Over 40% of the authority’s $3.1 billion outstanding debt is in variable-rate demand mode and, while no bank bonds are currently outstanding, approximately $400 million of authority revenue debt had been held by bank liquidity providers nearly one year ago due to failed remarketings. All of the outstanding variable-rate debt is hedged through a diverse group of swap counterparties; however, liquidity is concentrated through facilities provided by Dexia Credit Local (Fitch Issuer Default Rating of ‘A+’). while market conditions for variable-rate debt instruments have stabilized in recent months, uncertainties amongst the credit enhancers and liquidity providers could result in higher debt interest costs for the authority. Fitch expects the authority to carefully manage and limit the potential upside to its debt interest costs within its variable-rate portfolio. a preliminary plan to reduce variable-rate and swap exposures by at least 50% would be a positive development for the authority’s capital structure.
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