Howare you reading the Nifty’s movement this morning and how would you playthe index?

Actually marketswere waiting for one negative news to flow in for them to correct and the Dubaicrisis gave that news for markets to go down, it was more of a knee jerkreaction. Most of the Indian companies which have exposure to Dubai markets cameout with clarification as to the extent of losses that they might have tosuffer, which was way below the expectations and we saw that the market bouncedback in the second half and going forward today one thing that will have to waitis around 11:30 Dubai markets would open, we would have to see the reaction inDubai market. for traders that is very important but for investors any fall inthe market is a buying opportunity for longterm.

Right,tell us about auto as a pack because now we are talking about a price hikecoming in mainly because the input side has become dearer for the companies, sostocks like M&M and Tata motors, how would you really playthat?

definitely if you look atauto sector this is one sector which is exhibiting top line growth unlike othersectors and we have seen that the profits also have seen significant jump andthe cause of concern for most of these auto stocks was the increase in the rawmaterial prices and the commodity prices which will get factored in once theyraise the price of their vehicles. So what they are doing is the rise incommodity prices or rise in raw material prices being passed onto the endbuyers. So all said and done, this is one sector which will benefit and this isone sector which is seeing strong momentum growth and seeing strong top linesales and this will continue for few more quarters tocontinue.

Howare you reading the Nifty’s movement this morning and how will you playthe index?

I think this istypical when you have negative news and you get a collapse worldwide. Wenormally get this knee-jerk reaction followed by a sharp pullback, so I am notsurprised partly on Friday and the follow-up today but I think if I was atrader, at least if I bought on Friday, around these 5000-5050 levels, there isa lot of resistance now, so I at least would book my trading profits if I didanything on Friday and then just sit quiet and let the market settle down, maybe even today or tomorrow and then take a fresh call.

I think that should be idealbecause I do not think these things go away very fast. We get the knee-jerk andthe pullback but then it drifts for sometime, so I think give it a day or two.Otherwise, I think the market is still fairly okay. I am glad we bounced back onFriday because 4900 for me is very crucial level on a closing basis,that’s 4910 is roughly the 50-day exponential moving average, so once itstarts to close below that and it gets a little problematic, so the fact that ithas bounced back above it, I think that’s a good thing that happened onFridayitself.

Nowmarkets are likely to be range bound and what kind of a trading range would yoube watching out at least for the session today and also tell us about the MSCIIndia rejig? We believe that’s going to be active with effect today, itstarts after markets close. How would stocks like HDIL and Suzlon behave afterthey get into the MSCI index?

Since status has beenannounced early on, I think if anybody has a portfolio based on that, a lot ofthe churning must have already happened. I think the interesting thing fromFriday’s move will be particularly Suzlon. I think that surprised quite abit of traders also for that stock to be up 5-6%. 76-76.5 is a crucial level, Ithink if it takes that, although it is not one of my favourites to trade, but Ithink if it does takes that out, the 76 range, then its probably headed towards84-85 but if it even reaches there, then I think that’s a good exit levelfor anybody that is stuck.

MUMBAI:Indices were on a firm foot on Wednesday as buying activity resumed across theboard ahead of November series expiry. However volatility later in the daycan’t be ruled out.

At 12:29 pm, Bombay StockExchange’s Sensex was at 17269.62, up 138.54 points or 0.81 per cent. The30-share index hit an intra-day high of 17284.30 and low of 17124.15.

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty was at 5123.25, up 32.05 points or0.70 per cent.

“Nifty depicted signs of weakness on shortterm charts with formation of distributive patterns. Short term oscillators havebeen depicting sign of weakness for some time. Despite the divergence the indexso far continued to form higher peaks and troughs. Failure to rally past 5110would lead to increasing weakness in the index. Short term supports are placedat 5050 and below that at 5020 while 5110 remain crucial supply zone. Trenddecider level remains at 4900 and 5185 which may lead for unfolding of a biggermove,” said Edelweiss report.

BSE Midcap Index was up 0.77 percent and BSE Smallcap Index gained 0.93 per cent.

amongst thesectoral indices, BSE Oil&gas Index was up 1.76 per cent, BSE Metal Indexmoved 1.33 per cent higher and BSE Auto Index gained 1.10 per cent. BSE RealtyIndex was down 0.22 per cent.

Reliance Industries (1.90%), Mahindra& Mahindra (1.75%), Hero Honda (1.66%), Maruti Suzuki (1.61%) and ITC(1.46%) were amongst the top Sensex gainers.

DLF (-0.86%), NTPC(-0.46%), ICICI Bank (-0.42%), Tata Power (-0.34%) and Wipro (-0.14%) wereamongst the top losers.

Market breadth was positive on the BSE with1608 advances and 913 declines.

MUMBAI:Indices were on a firm foot on Wednesday as buying activity resumed across theboard ahead of November series expiry. However volatility later in the daycan’t be ruled out.

At 12:29 pm, Bombay StockExchange’s Sensex was at 17269.62, up 138.54 points or 0.81 per cent. The30-share index hit an intra-day high of 17284.30 and low of 17124.15.

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty was at 5123.25, up 32.05 points or0.70 per cent.

“Nifty depicted signs of weakness on shortterm charts with formation of distributive patterns. Short term oscillators havebeen depicting sign of weakness for some time. Despite the divergence the indexso far continued to form higher peaks and troughs. Failure to rally past 5110would lead to increasing weakness in the index. Short term supports are placedat 5050 and below that at 5020 while 5110 remain crucial supply zone. Trenddecider level remains at 4900 and 5185 which may lead for unfolding of a biggermove,” said Edelweiss report.

BSE Midcap Index was up 0.77 percent and BSE Smallcap Index gained 0.93 per cent.

amongst thesectoral indices, BSE Oil&gas Index was up 1.76 per cent, BSE Metal Indexmoved 1.33 per cent higher and BSE Auto Index gained 1.10 per cent. BSE RealtyIndex was down 0.22 per cent.

Reliance Industries (1.90%), Mahindra& Mahindra (1.75%), Hero Honda (1.66%), Maruti Suzuki (1.61%) and ITC(1.46%) were amongst the top Sensex gainers.

DLF (-0.86%), NTPC(-0.46%), ICICI Bank (-0.42%), Tata Power (-0.34%) and Wipro (-0.14%) wereamongst the top losers.

Market breadth was positive on the BSE with1608 advances and 913 declines.

Renault has no intentions of upsetting the applecart with Mahindra & Mahindra on the Logan project.

The Logan will continue to be developed with M&M, Carlos Ghosn, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Renault-Nissan, told Business Line during his recent India visit.

However, it is still not clear if there will be any change in the retail strategy for the car. At present, it is showcased with M&Ms Scorpio sport-utility vehicle in the companys showrooms. Renault is clear, though, that it is working on an independent retail strategy for its future India products and it remains to be seen if the Logan will be part of this revised plan.

The only thing that has to be clarified for Renault is how to market and sell our products. this is not an issue with our partner, Nissan because its retail plan is in place. Renault is working on something and is clear about an exclusive identity in the form of showrooms, advertising campaigns and so on, Ghosn said.

M&M and Renault entered into a 51:49 partnership three years ago to manufacture the Logan sedan. The car promised plenty but monthly sales have been at the sub-500 unit level for sometime now and losses last fiscal totalled nearly Rs 500 crore. The Nashik plant has been planned with an installed capacity of 50,000 cars annually.

M&M believes that the way forward is to reduce the length of the Logan to four metres so that it qualifies as a small car in the Indian context and can avail of the lower eight per cent excise duty (instead of the current level of 20 per cent). this is applicable to any car up to four metres long whose engine capacities do not exceed 1.2 litres for petrol and 1.5 litres in the case of diesel.

The excise duty is an issue in India but we need to continue to work on the Logan to adapt it to local tastes. we also need to do it quickly and with a good knowledge of what customers want, Ghosn said.

According to him, the other solution lay in localisation of components which would play a key role in bringing down costs. It now remains to be seen which of these options would be exercised though he was categorical that both parties would work jointly on finding an answer.

We need to do it with M&M as they have shared responsibility on the car and also possess knowledge of the Indian market. we need to decide the solution together, Mr Ghosn said.

It now looks as if the partners are working overtime to get it right. Hopefully, before the Delhi Auto Show kick of in January next year, you could see many things becoming clear in these small, grey areas, he added. It will be interesting to see if some of these initiatives include a new product line-up for the Nashik plant.

Trimming the Logan will help reduce its price tag by at least Rs 50,000 but dealers are not entirely certain if that alone would suffice especially when substantial discounts are already being offered on the car to keep it moving off the shelves.

Ghosn said that the Indian customer is value-driven and wants everything in his car which seems to indicate that Renault may even work on some internal aspects of the Logan in terms of offering more goodies at the same price, or even lower if its length is also reduced. The car, he added, has been a huge success in Russia, Europe, North Africa and Brazil.

We are surprised that it could not be replicated in India. The Logan is important for Renaults future because it is the first product from us in this country, Ghosn said.

Taken from Business Line

Mahindra Defence Systems (MDS), a unit of M&M will bid for defence projects in India worth $3.5 billion over the next seven years, said its chief executive yesterday.

Khutub Hai, head of MDS, a special division set up in new Delhi to oversee the requirements of the domestic defence sector told Reuters in an interview yesterday, ”Most of projects will come from artillery systems and armoured vehicles.”

Hai said that he hopes to increase revenues from the current $21.7 million to $430 million by 2016 through joint ventures.

In March 2009, M&M had sought shareholders’ approval to spin off two divisions of its defence unit into separate subsidiaries by transferring the land systems and naval systems divisions of MDS into separate companies. (See: M&M proposes to spin off land, sea defence units)

MDS is a current supplier of the entire range of light combat / armoured vehicles and their derivatives for defence / security forces. it also is the largest private sector company supplying bullet-proof vehicles and sea mines.

The company has been awarded industrial licenses by the government of India for Light Armoured Multi Role Vehicles, simulators for weapons and weapon systems, mobile surveillance platforms, sea mines, small arms and Up-armoured vehicles

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Renault has no intentions of upsetting the applecart with Mahindra & Mahindra on the Logan project.

The Logan will continue to be developed with M&M, Carlos Ghosn, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Renault-Nissan, told Business Line during his recent India visit.

However, it is still not clear if there will be any change in the retail strategy for the car. at present, it is showcased with M&Ms Scorpio sport-utility vehicle in the companys showrooms. Renault is clear, though, that it is working on an independent retail strategy for its future India products and it remains to be seen if the Logan will be part of this revised plan.

The only thing that has to be clarified for Renault is how to market and sell our products. This is not an issue with our partner, Nissan because its retail plan is in place. Renault is working on something and is clear about an exclusive identity in the form of showrooms, advertising campaigns and so on, Ghosn said.

M&M and Renault entered into a 51:49 partnership three years ago to manufacture the Logan sedan. The car promised plenty but monthly sales have been at the sub-500 unit level for sometime now and losses last fiscal totalled nearly Rs 500 crore. The Nashik plant has been planned with an installed capacity of 50,000 cars annually.

M&M believes that the way forward is to reduce the length of the Logan to four metres so that it qualifies as a small car in the Indian context and can avail of the lower eight per cent excise duty (instead of the current level of 20 per cent). This is applicable to any car up to four metres long whose engine capacities do not exceed 1.2 litres for petrol and 1.5 litres in the case of diesel.

The excise duty is an issue in India but we need to continue to work on the Logan to adapt it to local tastes. we also need to do it quickly and with a good knowledge of what customers want, Ghosn said.

According to him, the other solution lay in localisation of components which would play a key role in bringing down costs. It now remains to be seen which of these options would be exercised though he was categorical that both parties would work jointly on finding an answer.

We need to do it with M&M as they have shared responsibility on the car and also possess knowledge of the Indian market. we need to decide the solution together, mr Ghosn said.

It now looks as if the partners are working overtime to get it right. Hopefully, before the Delhi Auto show kick of in January next year, you could see many things becoming clear in these small, grey areas, he added. It will be interesting to see if some of these initiatives include a new product line-up for the Nashik plant.

Trimming the Logan will help reduce its price tag by at least Rs 50,000 but dealers are not entirely certain if that alone would suffice especially when substantial discounts are already being offered on the car to keep it moving off the shelves.

Ghosn said that the Indian customer is value-driven and wants everything in his car which seems to indicate that Renault may even work on some internal aspects of the Logan in terms of offering more goodies at the same price, or even lower if its length is also reduced. The car, he added, has been a huge success in Russia, Europe, North Africa and Brazil.

We are surprised that it could not be replicated in India. The Logan is important for Renaults future because it is the first product from us in this country, Ghosn said.

Taken from Business Line

NEW YORK – (Business Wire) Fitch Ratings assigns an ‘AA+’ rating to Port of Seattle, WA’s (the port) $378.1 million limited tax general obligation bonds (LTGO), consisting of:

–$87.9 million series 2000;

–$228.6 million series 2004;

–$61.6 million series 2006.

the Rating Outlook remains Stable.

the ‘AA+’ rating is based on the underlying strength of the Port of Seattle’s tax base and the port’s sound financial position, including both ongoing operating surpluses and ample tax levy capacity for repayment of the bonds.

the port district boundaries are coterminous with King County, Washington State’s largest county in terms of population and economic strength. Fitch rates King County’s unlimited general obligation (GO) bonds ‘AAA’ and its limited GO bonds ‘AA+’.

the bonds are secured by ad valorem taxes levied within the port district. the total tax levy is limited by the statewide I-747 tax initiative, which applies a 1% growth limitation to the total levy, including the debt service component (although the debt service levy tax rate is unlimited). the port also retains $9.5 million in ‘banked’ capacity, tax capacity that may be levied at any time through a majority vote of Port commissioners. Port management makes conservative use of the tax levy and GO issuance, maintaining a policy of leveraging no more than 75% of the levy for debt service. the Port has budgeted to use only 53% of the levy for debt service in fiscal year 2009 (FY09). the port’s fiscal strength is evident in its diverse revenue stream, which includes the ad valorem property tax as well as operating revenue from the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, and the seaport division. Revenues and activity levels remain healthy for both the aviation and maritime divisions.

Direct debt levels are modest and slightly reduced since Fitch’s last review, at a low 0.12% of market value. overall debt is stable at 1.8% of market value and $3,268 per capita.

the port district’s tax base is large, diverse, and far wealthier per capita and per median household than state and national averages. the county unemployment and poverty rates are also historically and currently lower than national rates. the assessed valuation is projected to fall by 11.7% for the 2010 tax year, although this large shift is due in part to a change in assessment methodology, moving from a three-year rolling average to an annual reduction. this change in approach is designed to reduce the number of contested assessments by county taxpayers.

Additional information is available at fitchratings.com.

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY’S PUBLIC WEBSITE ‘WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM’. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH’S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE ‘CODE OF CONDUCT’ SECTION OF THIS SITE.

Fitch Ratings, New York
Tom Cowell, +1-212-908-9130
Andrew DeStefano, +1-212-908-0284
Media Relations:
Cindy Stoller, +1-212-908-0526
cindy.stoller@fitchratings.com

The village of Martinstown in Dorset has long had a special place in the hearts of meteorologists. On 18 July 1955, it experienced the heaviest rain ever recorded in the UK over a 24-hour period. Until last week that is.

Now the dubious honour belongs to Seathwaite and the residents of Martinstown have sent their sympathies to the people of Cockermouth.

Experts at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) have been poring over their records to see how unusual it is for Seathwaite to experience intense rainfall. the village, apparently, gets regular mentions in the British Hydrological Society’s “chronology of hydrological events”, going back to 1800.

“There is a record of 8.52 inches (204 mm) on 12 Nov 1897 and 7.52 inches (191 mm) 26 Nov 1861; 6-inch totals are not uncommon in the record. This is one of the wettest parts of the country, and clearly has seen some very notable rainfall totals in the past. however, the recent rainfall seems to eclipse anything previously seen, by some margin.”

According to the Lake District National Park, Seathwaite is actually the wettest inhabited place anywhere in England, experiencing around 3500mm of precipitation each year. but even the oldest inhabitants will never have seen anything like the rain the village suffered last week.

“Flooding during the autumn/winter season is relatively common in the UK,” says Jamie Hannaford from CEH. “However, the magnitude of the provisional rainfall totals (for Seathwaite) suggests this is a monumental event, and perhaps a ‘record-breaker’.”

The Met Office has a list of “record-breakers” on its website – still awaiting confirmation of the Seathwaite downpour, one assumes.

What strikes me about these lists is that the 12 rainfall events span more than a hundred years and if you were going to pick a period that has seen exceptional precipitation, it would be the period between June 1953 and June 1956. Three extraordinary, record-breaking rainstorms hit the UK in three years. No-one attributed them to climate change then.

The CEH has been thinking about the question of whether the Cumbrian floods can be laid at the door of global warming.

“This flooding is occurring in a part of the country which has become wetter in the recent past. the latest research from the UK Climate Projections team (UKCP09) indicates that winter rainfall has increased in the north-west of the UK since the early 1960s. other research suggests that extreme rainfalls have also increased in frequency in northern and western areas of the UK, and one recent study which involved CEH scientists found that, over the last 50 years, the daily maximum rainfall has increased by 25% in northern and western areas relative to the previous 50 years.”

The CEH experts have also identified increases in river flows leading to floods in the area over the last 30-40 years, but they cannot be sure of the cause.

“Whether this is due to climate change is an open question; these records are fairly short, and increases in rainfall and flow over this period may reflect variability associated with changes in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic,” they suggest.

Indeed, trying to see the Cockermouth floods in an historical context, they are even more equivocal. “(T)rends over a longer period (more than 50 years) are generally much less compelling, and in general, there is limited evidence for long-term trends in flood frequency or magnitude anywhere in the UK.”

So, in trying to answer the question of my title, this post must end with the cliched pay-off from a thousand TV news reports: “It is too early to tell”.

The black and white images in this post are from Margaret Hearing’s the Book of Martinstown. Many thanks to Richard Knight and Margaret Hearing for permission to reproduce them.

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